Torreense vs União de Leiria
Portugal Segunda Liga
Torreense
União de Leiria
November 9, 2026 at 21:15 · Estadio Manuel Marques
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Torreense vs União de Leiria prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Segunda Liga match, kicking off November 9, 2026 at 21:15 at Estadio Manuel Marques. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.40), 78% confidence.
Torreense vs União de Leiria Preview
Torreense host União de Leiria in the Portugal Segunda Liga (matchday 10) on Monday 9 November 2026, kick-off 21:15 WAT at Estadio Manuel Marques in Torres Vedras. Helder Carvalho is the referee.
Torreense are 13th in the table with 10 points from 9 games (2-4-3), while União de Leiria sit 9th on 14 points. União de Leiria have a 4-point advantage. At home Torreense have won 1 of 4; União de Leiria have won 1 of 4 on the road.
Torreense have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-W-D), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. União de Leiria have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-D-W), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Torreense have won 4, União de Leiria 1, with 1 draw and an average of 2.7 goals per game. The most recent, in February 2026, finished Torreense 3-1 União de Leiria.
Torreense average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. União de Leiria average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-4-2.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Bookmakers make Torreense the favourites: Torreense 2.10, draw 3.25, União de Leiria 3.25 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80 and under at 2.00. Both teams to score: yes 1.62, no 2.20.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.7 goals and recent form points to 1.6 goals a game.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | União de Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
Season stats
| Torreense | União de Leiria | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 4 / 3 | 4 / 2 / 3 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 8 (0.9) | 13 (1.4) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 10 (1.1) | 11 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 13:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.12 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Torreense win | 40.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| União de Leiria win | 32.3% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 67.7% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 59.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 16:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.7 goals and recent form points to 1.6 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Torreense
WDLWD
0.6 scored · 0.2 conceded per game
União de Leiria
WDLDW
1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Torreense wins 1 draws 1 União de Leiria wins last 6 meetings
- Torreense3 - 1União de Leiria Segunda Liga
- Torreense3 - 1União de Leiria Taça de Portugal
- União de Leiria1 - 0Torreense Segunda Liga
- União de Leiria1 - 3Torreense Segunda Liga
- Torreense2 - 1União de Leiria Segunda Liga
- Torreense0 - 0União de Leiria Friendlies Clubs
Statistics: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 13:15. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
