Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina
Defensa Y Justicia
Independiente
November 2, 2026 at 23:00 · Estadio Norberto Tomaghello
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Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente prediction and betting tip for this Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 23:00 at Estadio Norberto Tomaghello. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 82% confidence.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente Preview
Defensa Y Justicia host Independiente in the Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina (Clausura - 15) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 WAT at Estadio Norberto Tomaghello in Julio Costa. Sebastian Nicolas Martinez is the referee.
Defensa Y Justicia are 4th in the table with 27 points from 14 games (8-3-3), while Independiente sit 8th on 19 points. Defensa Y Justicia have a 8-point advantage. At home Defensa Y Justicia have won 5 of 7; Independiente have won 4 of 7 on the road.
Defensa Y Justicia have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-W), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Independiente have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (W-L-D-D-L), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Defensa Y Justicia have won 2, Independiente 2, with 2 draws and an average of 1.7 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Independiente 3-1 Defensa Y Justicia.
Defensa Y Justicia average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 9 clean sheets and 8 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Independiente average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 9 clean sheets and 7 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: G. Ávalos leads Independiente's scoring with 11 goals and 5 assists.
Bookmakers make Defensa Y Justicia the favourites: Defensa Y Justicia 2.25, draw 3.00, Independiente 3.60 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.20 and under at 1.65. Both teams to score: yes 1.91, no 1.91.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 1.7 goals and recent form points to 2.4 goals a game.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 27 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
Season stats
| Defensa Y Justicia | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 30 | 31 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 12 / 10 / 8 | 11 / 10 / 10 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 38 (1.3) | 37 (1.2) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 34 (1.1) | 37 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 7 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- G. Ávalos 11 goals · 5 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:21. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.26 – 0.97 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia win | 43.1% | 42.1% | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 31.6% | 3.00 | -14.6% |
| Independiente win | 28.4% | 26.3% | 3.60 | +2.2% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 71.6% | 73.7% | 1.28 | -8.3% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 56.9% | 57.9% | 1.62 | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 68.8% | 1.36 | -11.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 42.9% | 2.20 | -15.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 57.1% | 1.65 | +1.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81.3% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 50.0% | 1.91 | -15.0% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 1.7 goals and recent form points to 2.4 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Defensa Y Justicia
DWWLW
1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded per game
Independiente
WLDDL
0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Defensa Y Justicia wins 2 draws 2 Independiente wins last 6 meetings
- Independiente3 - 1Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina
- Defensa Y Justicia0 - 0Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina
- Independiente0 - 2Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina
- Defensa Y Justicia2 - 1Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina
- Independiente0 - 0Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina
- Independiente1 - 0Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:19. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
