Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Italy Serie A
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
November 2, 2026 at 18:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Upcoming
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction and betting tip for this Italy Serie A match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 18:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.17), 87% confidence.
- Both Teams to Score - Yes Upcoming
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Preview
Sassuolo host Fiorentina in the Italy Serie A (matchday 10) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 18:30 WAT at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia. Matteo Marcenaro is the referee.
Sassuolo are 15th in the table with 8 points from 9 games (2-2-5), while Fiorentina sit 17th on 5 points. Only 3 points separate them. At home Sassuolo have won 2 of 4; Fiorentina have won 1 of 4 on the road.
Sassuolo have one draw and four defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-L-L-L), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. Fiorentina have two draws and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-L-D), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Sassuolo have won 2, Fiorentina 3, with 1 draw and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
Sassuolo average 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3. Fiorentina average 1.2 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3.
Sassuolo will be without D. Boloca (muscle injury), I. Kone (broken leg), F. Leysen (knee injury), Y. Paz (knee injury) and K. Thorstvedt (red card). Fiorentina will be without A. Atta (abdominal strain), F. Parisi (knee injury), M. Pongracic (muscle injury) and R. Sottil (back injury), and L. Ranieri (leg injury) is doubtful.
Bookmakers make Fiorentina the favourites: Sassuolo 2.88, draw 3.60, Fiorentina 2.35 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.57 and under at 2.38. Both teams to score: yes 1.44, no 2.62.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.8 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 3.7 goals a game.
Team news
- Out D. Boloca Muscle Injury
- Out I. Kone Broken Leg
- Out F. Leysen Knee Injury
- Out Y. Paz Knee Injury
- Out K. Thorstvedt Red Card
- Out A. Atta Abdominal strain
- Out F. Parisi Knee Injury
- Out M. Pongracic Muscle Injury
- Out R. Sottil Back Injury
- Doubtful L. Ranieri Leg Injury
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Season stats
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 14 (1.6) | 11 (1.2) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 22 (2.4) | 21 (2.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Usual formation | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.53 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 43.9% | 33.1% | 2.88 | +26.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 26.4% | 3.60 | -18.0% |
| Fiorentina win | 33.3% | 40.5% | 2.35 | -21.8% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 66.7% | 59.5% | 1.57 | +4.7% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 56.1% | 66.9% | 1.40 | -21.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 81.0% | 1.17 | -1.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 60.3% | 1.57 | +1.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 39.7% | 2.38 | -15.3% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.6% | 58.7% | 1.62 | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 64.5% | 1.44 | -6.0% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 10:29, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.8 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 3.7 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Sassuolo
LDLLL
1.2 scored · 3.0 conceded per game
Fiorentina
DLLLD
1.2 scored · 2.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Sassuolo wins 1 draws 3 Fiorentina wins last 6 meetings
- Fiorentina0 - 0Sassuolo Serie A
- Sassuolo3 - 1Fiorentina Serie A
- Fiorentina5 - 1Sassuolo Serie A
- Sassuolo1 - 0Fiorentina Serie A
- Sassuolo1 - 3Fiorentina Serie A
- Fiorentina2 - 1Sassuolo Serie A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 00:42. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
