Atalanta vs Parma
Italy Serie A
Atalanta
Parma
November 2, 2026 at 20:45 · New Balance Arena
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Atalanta vs Parma prediction and betting tip for this Italy Serie A match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 20:45 at New Balance Arena. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.12), 85% confidence.
Atalanta vs Parma Preview
Atalanta host Parma in the Italy Serie A (matchday 10) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:45 WAT at New Balance Arena in Bergamo. Valerio Crezzini is the referee.
Atalanta are 12th in the table with 11 points from 9 games (3-2-4), while Parma sit 18th on 5 points. Atalanta have a 6-point advantage. At home Atalanta have won 3 of 5; Parma have won 0 of 4 on the road.
Atalanta have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-L-D-D), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Parma have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (W-L-L-L-D), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Atalanta have won 3, Parma 2, with 1 draw and an average of 4.5 goals per game. The most recent, in January 2026, finished Atalanta 4-0 Parma.
Atalanta average 1.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3. Parma average 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-2-1.
Atalanta will be without R. Bellanova (thigh injury), I. Hien (muscle injury), F. Kessie (calf injury), S. Kolasinac (thigh injury), O. Kossounou (thigh injury), G. Raspadori (thigh injury) and G. Scamacca (thigh injury), and T. Kristensen (injury) is doubtful. Parma will be without N. Elphege (illness) and L. Valenti (coach's decision).
Players to watch: N. Krstović leads Atalanta's scoring with 6 goals and 2 assists.
Bookmakers make Atalanta the favourites: Atalanta 1.53, draw 4.33, Parma 6.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.62 and under at 2.30. Both teams to score: yes 1.75, no 2.00.
Our prediction: Atalanta or draw (1X). The model gives Atalanta or a draw a 90% chance, Parma have lost 3 of their last 5 and Atalanta sit 12th, 6 places above Parma.
Team news
- Out R. Bellanova Thigh Injury
- Out I. Hien Muscle Injury
- Out F. Kessie Calf Injury
- Out S. Kolasinac Thigh Injury
- Out O. Kossounou Thigh Injury
- Out G. Raspadori Thigh Injury
- Out G. Scamacca Thigh Injury
- Doubtful T. Kristensen Injury
- Out N. Elphege Illness
- Out L. Valenti Coach's decision
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Season stats
| Atalanta | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 3 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 16 (1.8) | 5 (0.6) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 17 (1.9) | 15 (1.7) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-3-3 | 3-4-2-1 |
Top scorers
- N. Krstović 6 goals · 2 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:21. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.54 – 0.69 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 91/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 58.0% | 62.2% | 1.53 | -11.3% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 22.0% | 4.33 | +10.6% |
| Parma win | 16.5% | 15.9% | 6.00 | -1.2% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 83.5% | 84.1% | 1.12 | -6.4% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 42.0% | 37.8% | 2.50 | +5.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | 78.9% | 1.20 | -21.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 58.7% | 1.62 | -37.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 41.3% | 2.30 | +41.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81.4% | 63.6% | 1.50 | +22.0% |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 53.3% | 1.75 | -31.7% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Atalanta or draw (1X) — The model gives Atalanta or a draw a 90% chance, Parma have lost 3 of their last 5 and Atalanta sit 12th, 6 places above Parma.
Form (last 5)
Atalanta
LWLDD
2.2 scored · 2.4 conceded per game
Parma
WLLLD
0.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Atalanta wins 1 draws 2 Parma wins last 6 meetings
- Atalanta4 - 0Parma Serie A
- Parma1 - 1Atalanta Serie A
- Atalanta2 - 3Parma Serie A
- Parma1 - 3Atalanta Serie A
- Parma4 - 1Atalanta Friendlies Clubs
- Parma2 - 5Atalanta Serie A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 06:19. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
