Leganes vs Burgos
Spain Segunda División
Leganes
Burgos
November 13, 2026 at 20:30 · Municipal de Butarque
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Leganes vs Burgos prediction and betting tip for this Spain Segunda División match, kicking off November 13, 2026 at 20:30 at Municipal de Butarque. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.22), 81% confidence.
Leganes vs Burgos Preview
Leganes host Burgos in the Spain Segunda División (matchday 14) on Friday 13 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 WAT at Municipal de Butarque in Leganes.
Leganes are 18th in the table with 12 points from 13 games (3-3-7), while Burgos sit 3rd on 24 points. Burgos have a 12-point advantage. At home Leganes have won 2 of 6; Burgos have won 2 of 5 on the road.
Leganes have one draw and four defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-D-L-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Burgos have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-D-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Leganes have won 2, Burgos 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.0 goals per game. The most recent, in January 2026, finished Burgos 2-1 Leganes.
Leganes average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 6 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-2-1. Burgos average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-4-2.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Álex Forés leads Burgos's scoring with 4 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Leganes the favourites: Leganes 2.20, draw 3.20, Burgos 3.40 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.25 and under at 1.62. Both teams to score: yes 1.91, no 1.80.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.9 goals a game.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
Season stats
| Leganes | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 3 / 3 / 7 | 7 / 3 / 3 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 11 (0.8) | 19 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 23 (1.8) | 14 (1.1) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.0 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 3-4-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- Álex Forés 4 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 12 Nov 2026, 00:42. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.91 – 1.33 · most likely score 0-1 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 25.6% | 42.8% | 2.20 | -43.7% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 29.4% | 3.20 | -10.2% |
| Burgos win | 46.3% | 27.7% | 3.40 | +57.5% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 53.7% | 72.3% | 1.30 | -30.2% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 74.4% | 57.2% | 1.67 | +24.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 68.8% | 1.36 | -11.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 41.9% | 2.25 | -13.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 58.1% | 1.62 | -0.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81.3% | 76.6% | 1.22 | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 48.5% | 1.91 | -16.4% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 12 Nov 2026, 00:42, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.9 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Leganes
LLDLL
1.0 scored · 2.4 conceded per game
Burgos
LWWDW
1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Leganes wins 1 draws 3 Burgos wins last 6 meetings
- Burgos2 - 1Leganes Segunda División
- Leganes1 - 2Burgos Segunda División
- Leganes2 - 0Burgos Segunda División
- Burgos1 - 0Leganes Segunda División
- Burgos0 - 3Leganes Segunda División
- Leganes0 - 0Burgos Segunda División
Statistics: API-Football · updated 12 Nov 2026, 00:42. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
