Derby vs Norwich
England Championship
Derby
Norwich
November 3, 2026 at 20:45 · Pride Park Stadium
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Derby vs Norwich prediction and betting tip for this England Championship match, kicking off November 3, 2026 at 20:45 at Pride Park Stadium. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.22), 81% confidence.
Derby vs Norwich Preview
Derby host Norwich in the England Championship (matchday 14) on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:45 WAT at Pride Park Stadium in Derby. Sam Allison is the referee.
Derby are 23rd in the table with 7 points from 13 games (1-4-8), while Norwich sit 15th on 15 points. Norwich have a 8-point advantage. At home Derby have won 0 of 6; Norwich have won 2 of 6 on the road.
Derby have two draws and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-D-L), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Norwich have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-L-W-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Derby have won 2, Norwich 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Norwich 2-1 Derby.
Derby average 0.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Norwich average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Derby will be without P. Agyemang (achilles tendon injury), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf injury), C. Forsyth (knee injury), S. Langas (injury), D. Murkin (hamstring injury), C. Taylor (injury) and L. Travis (ankle injury). Norwich will be without A. Ahmed (knee injury), P. A. Diallo (injury), G. Forsyth (lacking match fitness) and M. Toure (shoulder injury), and P. Mattsson (health problems) is doubtful.
Players to watch: M. Touré leads Norwich's scoring with 5 goals.
Bookmakers make Norwich the favourites: Derby 3.50, draw 3.60, Norwich 2.05 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.73 and under at 2.10. Both teams to score: yes 1.62, no 2.20.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.2 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.2 goals and recent form points to 2.9 goals a game.
Team news
- Out P. Agyemang Achilles Tendon Injury
- Out E. Cashin Inactive
- Out M. Clarke Calf Injury
- Out C. Forsyth Knee Injury
- Out S. Langas Injury
- Out D. Murkin Hamstring Injury
- Out C. Taylor Injury
- Out L. Travis Ankle Injury
- Out A. Ahmed Knee Injury
- Out P. A. Diallo Injury
- Out G. Forsyth Lacking Match Fitness
- Out M. Toure Shoulder Injury
- Doubtful P. Mattsson Health problems
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 7 |
Season stats
| Derby | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 1 / 4 / 8 | 5 / 0 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 11 (0.8) | 23 (1.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 25 (1.9) | 24 (1.8) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.7 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- M. Touré 5 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 2 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.72 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 82/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Derby win | 26.4% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Norwich win | 49.8% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 50.2% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66.8% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 2 Nov 2026, 10:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.2 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.2 goals and recent form points to 2.9 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Derby
DLLDL
0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
Norwich
LLLWW
1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Derby wins 1 draws 3 Norwich wins last 6 meetings
- Norwich2 - 1Derby Championship
- Derby1 - 0Norwich Championship
- Norwich1 - 1Derby Championship
- Derby2 - 3Norwich Championship
- Derby0 - 1Norwich Championship
- Norwich0 - 1Derby Championship
Statistics: API-Football · updated 2 Nov 2026, 00:43. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
