Blackburn vs Stoke City
England Championship
Blackburn
Stoke City
November 3, 2026 at 20:45 · Ewood Park
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Blackburn vs Stoke City prediction and betting tip for this England Championship match, kicking off November 3, 2026 at 20:45 at Ewood Park. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.28), 84% confidence.
Blackburn vs Stoke City Preview
Blackburn host Stoke City in the England Championship (matchday 14) on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:45 WAT at Ewood Park in Blackburn. Andrew Kitchen is the referee.
Blackburn are 13th in the table with 18 points from 13 games (5-3-5), while Stoke City sit 7th on 23 points. Stoke City have a 5-point advantage. At home Blackburn have won 4 of 6; Stoke City have won 3 of 6 on the road.
Blackburn have three wins and two defeats in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-W-L), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Stoke City have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-L-W-D-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Blackburn have won 2, Stoke City 2, with 2 draws and an average of 2.3 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn.
Blackburn average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Stoke City average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 3-4-3.
Blackburn will be without A. Forshaw (hip injury), M. Litherland (muscle injury) and L. Miller (achilles tendon injury), and R. Morishita (injury) is doubtful. Stoke City will be without A. Ampah (knee injury), E. Bocat (injury), A. Cresswell (knee injury), E. Galbraith (yellow cards) and S. Gallagher (injury).
Players to watch: A. Guðjohnsen leads Blackburn's scoring with 8 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Blackburn the favourites: Blackburn 2.62, draw 3.25, Stoke City 2.62 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.10 and under at 1.73. Both teams to score: yes 1.80, no 1.91.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.9 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.3 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Team news
- Out A. Forshaw Hip Injury
- Out M. Litherland Muscle Injury
- Out L. Miller Achilles Tendon Injury
- Doubtful R. Morishita Injury
- Out A. Ampah Knee Injury
- Out E. Bocat Injury
- Out A. Cresswell Knee Injury
- Out E. Galbraith Yellow Cards
- Out S. Gallagher Injury
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
Season stats
| Blackburn | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 5 / 3 / 5 | 7 / 2 / 4 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 19 (1.5) | 20 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 20 (1.5) | 16 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Top scorers
- A. Guðjohnsen 8 goals · 1 assist
- O. Afolayan 4 goals · 2 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 2 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.22 – 0.90 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 82/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 43.6% |
| Draw | 29.3% |
| Stoke City win | 27.1% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 72.9% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 56.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83.5% |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 2 Nov 2026, 10:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.9 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.3 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Blackburn
WWLWL
1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per game
Stoke City
WLWDW
1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Blackburn wins 2 draws 2 Stoke City wins last 6 meetings
- Stoke City1 - 1Blackburn Championship
- Blackburn1 - 1Stoke City Championship
- Stoke City1 - 0Blackburn Championship
- Blackburn0 - 2Stoke City Championship
- Blackburn3 - 1Stoke City Championship
- Stoke City0 - 3Blackburn Championship
Statistics: API-Football · updated 2 Nov 2026, 00:43. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
