Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
Bulgaria First League
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
November 2, 2026 at 18:30 · Arena Arda
Upcoming
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia prediction and betting tip for this Bulgaria First League match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 18:30 at Arena Arda. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.14), 87% confidence.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia Preview
Arda Kardzhali host Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria First League (matchday 14) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 18:30 WAT at Arena Arda in Kerdjali. Vasil Minev is the referee.
Arda Kardzhali are 6th in the table with 18 points from 12 games (5-3-4), while Septemvri Sofia sit 14th on 8 points. Arda Kardzhali have a 10-point advantage. At home Arda Kardzhali have won 3 of 6; Septemvri Sofia have won 1 of 6 on the road.
Arda Kardzhali have two draws and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-D-L-D), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. Septemvri Sofia have five defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-L-L-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Arda Kardzhali have won 3, Septemvri Sofia 2, with 1 draw and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in July 2026, finished Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali.
Arda Kardzhali average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Septemvri Sofia average 0.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: B. Karagaren leads Arda Kardzhali's scoring with 1 goal and 1 assist; André Filipe Rio Liberal leads Septemvri Sofia's scoring with 1 goal and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Arda Kardzhali the favourites: Arda Kardzhali 1.62, draw 3.80, Septemvri Sofia 5.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15 and under at 1.67. Both teams to score: yes 2.20, no 1.62.
Our prediction: Arda Kardzhali or draw (1X). The model gives Arda Kardzhali or a draw a 90% chance, Septemvri Sofia have lost 5 of their last 5 and Arda Kardzhali sit 6th, 8 places above Septemvri Sofia.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 8 |
Season stats
| Arda Kardzhali | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 12 | 12 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 5 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 16 (1.3) | 10 (0.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 18 (1.5) | 23 (1.9) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.7 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- B. Karagaren 1 goal · 1 assist
- S. Kovachev 1 goal · 0 assists
- A. Kabov 1 goal · 0 assists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal 1 goal · 1 assist
- F. Herard 1 goal · 0 assists
- A. Dzhamov 1 goal · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.00 – 0.74 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali win | 66.9% | 58.1% | 1.62 | +8.4% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 24.8% | 3.80 | -23.1% |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 12.9% | 17.1% | 5.50 | -29.1% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 87.1% | 82.9% | 1.14 | -0.7% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 33.1% | 41.9% | 2.25 | -25.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 68.8% | 1.36 | +3.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 43.7% | 2.15 | +10.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 56.3% | 1.67 | -19.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70.6% | 76.6% | 1.22 | -13.8% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 42.4% | 2.20 | -0.7% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 10:29, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Arda Kardzhali or draw (1X) — The model gives Arda Kardzhali or a draw a 90% chance, Septemvri Sofia have lost 5 of their last 5 and Arda Kardzhali sit 6th, 8 places above Septemvri Sofia.
Form (last 5)
Arda Kardzhali
LLDLD
1.0 scored · 2.8 conceded per game
Septemvri Sofia
LLLLL
1.0 scored · 2.6 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Arda Kardzhali wins 1 draws 2 Septemvri Sofia wins last 6 meetings
- Septemvri Sofia1 - 1Arda Kardzhali First League
- Septemvri Sofia1 - 4Arda Kardzhali First League
- Arda Kardzhali0 - 1Septemvri Sofia First League
- Arda Kardzhali1 - 2Septemvri Sofia Friendlies Clubs
- Septemvri Sofia0 - 4Arda Kardzhali First League
- Arda Kardzhali2 - 1Septemvri Sofia First League
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 00:42. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
