Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
Brazil Serie B
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
November 12, 2026 at 23:00 · Moisés Lucarelli
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Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR prediction and betting tip for this Brazil Serie B match, kicking off November 12, 2026 at 23:00 at Moisés Lucarelli. Our tip: Double Chance: Away or Draw (X2) (odds 1.14), 79% confidence.
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR Preview
Ponte Preta host Operario-PR in the Brazil Serie B (matchday 38) on Thursday 12 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 WAT at Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas.
Ponte Preta are 20th in the table with 15 points from 37 games (3-6-28), while Operario-PR sit 10th on 54 points. Operario-PR have a 39-point advantage. At home Ponte Preta have won 2 of 18; Operario-PR have won 6 of 18 on the road.
Ponte Preta have two draws and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-D-L-L), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Operario-PR have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-W-L-W), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Ponte Preta have won 2, Operario-PR 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.7 goals per game. The most recent, in July 2026, finished Operario-PR 3-2 Ponte Preta.
Ponte Preta average 0.6 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 20 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-2-1. Operario-PR average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 9 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Boschilia leads Operario-PR's scoring with 13 goals and 4 assists.
Bookmakers make Operario-PR the favourites: Ponte Preta 5.00, draw 4.00, Operario-PR 1.55 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.73 and under at 2.08. Both teams to score: yes 1.80, no 1.91.
Our prediction: Operario-PR or draw (X2). The model gives Operario-PR or a draw a 90% chance, Ponte Preta have lost 3 of their last 5 and Operario-PR sit 10th, 10 places above Ponte Preta.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Operario-PR | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | -1 | 54 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 37 | 3 | 6 | 28 | -58 | 15 |
Season stats
| Ponte Preta | Operario-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 37 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 3 / 6 / 28 | 15 / 9 / 13 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 21 (0.6) | 49 (1.3) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 79 (2.1) | 50 (1.4) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 20 | 9 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 4 |
| Biggest win | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Usual formation | 3-4-2-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- Boschilia 13 goals · 4 assists
- Vinícius Diniz 7 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 11:42. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.98 – 1.71 · most likely score 0-1 · data quality 95/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta win | 21.5% | 18.3% | 5.00 | +7.5% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.8% | 4.00 | -4.5% |
| Operario-PR win | 54.6% | 58.9% | 1.55 | -15.3% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 45.4% | 41.1% | 2.25 | +2.1% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 78.5% | 81.7% | 1.14 | -10.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | 76.6% | 1.22 | -8.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 54.6% | 1.73 | -12.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 45.4% | 2.08 | +3.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71.6% | 66.3% | 1.40 | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 51.5% | 1.80 | -7.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 11 Nov 2026, 13:30, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Operario-PR or draw (X2) — The model gives Operario-PR or a draw a 90% chance, Ponte Preta have lost 3 of their last 5 and Operario-PR sit 10th, 10 places above Ponte Preta.
Form (last 5)
Ponte Preta
LDDLL
0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
Operario-PR
LLWLW
1.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Ponte Preta wins 1 draws 3 Operario-PR wins last 6 meetings
- Operario-PR3 - 2Ponte Preta Serie B
- Ponte Preta0 - 1Operario-PR Serie B
- Operario-PR1 - 1Ponte Preta Serie B
- Ponte Preta3 - 0Operario-PR Serie B
- Operario-PR2 - 0Ponte Preta Serie B
- Operario-PR1 - 2Ponte Preta Serie B
Statistics: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 11:42. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
