Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
France Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
November 7, 2026 at 21:05 · Parc des Princes
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Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction and betting tip for this France Ligue 1 match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 21:05 at Parc des Princes. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.01), 93% confidence.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Preview
Paris Saint Germain host Estac Troyes in the France Ligue 1 (matchday 10) on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:05 WAT at Parc des Princes in Paris. Ruddy Buquet is the referee.
Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the table with 20 points from 9 games (6-2-1), while Estac Troyes sit 16th on 8 points. Paris Saint Germain have a 12-point advantage. At home Paris Saint Germain have won 2 of 3; Estac Troyes have won 1 of 4 on the road.
Paris Saint Germain have five wins in their last 5 league games (W-W-W-W-W), averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Estac Troyes have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-L-D-W), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Estac Troyes 0, with 1 draw and an average of 3.7 goals per game. The most recent, in May 2023, finished Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain average 2.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets, usually in a 4-3-3. Estac Troyes average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Ferran Torres leads Paris Saint Germain's scoring with 4 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Paris Saint Germain the favourites: Paris Saint Germain 1.11, draw 9.50, Estac Troyes 21.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.28 and under at 3.75. Both teams to score: yes 2.00, no 1.75.
Our prediction: Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X). The model gives Paris Saint Germain or a draw a 100% chance, Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 15 places above Estac Troyes.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
Season stats
| Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 6 / 2 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 21 (2.3) | 7 (0.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 10 (1.1) | 16 (1.8) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.0 / 2.5 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 5 |
| Longest winning run | 0 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 2-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-3-3 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- Ferran Torres 4 goals · 1 assist
- A. Hakimi 3 goals · 2 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:16. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.65 – 0.65 · most likely score 2-0 · data quality 72/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain win | 79.9% |
| Draw | 13.3% |
| Estac Troyes win | 6.7% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 93.3% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 20.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58.1% |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 50%, draw 50%, away 0%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 14:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X) — The model gives Paris Saint Germain or a draw a 100% chance, Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 15 places above Estac Troyes.
Form (last 5)
Paris Saint Germain
WWWWW
3.0 scored · 0.8 conceded per game
Estac Troyes
LLLDW
0.6 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
5 Paris Saint Germain wins 1 draws 0 Estac Troyes wins last 6 meetings
- Estac Troyes1 - 3Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1
- Paris Saint Germain4 - 3Estac Troyes Ligue 1
- Paris Saint Germain2 - 2Estac Troyes Ligue 1
- Estac Troyes1 - 2Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1
- Estac Troyes0 - 2Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1
- Paris Saint Germain2 - 0Estac Troyes Ligue 1
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:16. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
