Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Scotland Premiership
Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk
November 8, 2026 at 16:00 · Tynecastle Park
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Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction and betting tip for this Scotland Premiership match, kicking off November 8, 2026 at 16:00 at Tynecastle Park. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.22), 84% confidence.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk Preview
Heart Of Midlothian host Falkirk in the Scotland Premiership (matchday 13) on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 WAT at Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh. Matthew McDermid is the referee.
Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd in the table with 20 points from 11 games (6-2-3), while Falkirk sit 4th on 18 points. Only 2 points separate them. At home Heart Of Midlothian have won 4 of 5; Falkirk have won 2 of 6 on the road.
Heart Of Midlothian have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-L-W-D), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Falkirk have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-W-W), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Heart Of Midlothian have won 4, Falkirk 1, with 1 draw and an average of 2.3 goals per game. The most recent, in September 2026, finished Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian.
Heart Of Midlothian average 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Falkirk average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Players to watch: Cláudio Braga leads Heart Of Midlothian's scoring with 5 goals and 2 assists; J. Murrell leads Falkirk's scoring with 5 goals.
Line-ups are in: Heart Of Midlothian line up in a 4-2-3-1, Falkirk in a 4-2-3-1.
Bookmakers make Heart Of Midlothian the favourites: Heart Of Midlothian 1.80, draw 4.00, Falkirk 3.90 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.73 and under at 2.10. Both teams to score: yes 1.67, no 2.10.
Our prediction: Heart Of Midlothian or draw (1X). The model gives Heart Of Midlothian or a draw a 90% chance, Heart Of Midlothian have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they are unbeaten in 5 of 5 home games.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Falkirk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
Season stats
| Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 11 | 12 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 6 / 2 / 3 | 5 / 3 / 4 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 24 (2.2) | 15 (1.3) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 17 (1.5) | 12 (1.0) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 3.0 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 5-0 | 3-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- Cláudio Braga 5 goals · 2 assists
- C. Miller 5 goals · 1 assist
- J. McPake 3 goals · 5 assists
- J. Murrell 5 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Starting line-ups
B. Reus, J. Altena, M. Fagan-Walcott, S. Findlay, J. McCart, Y. Dhanda, L. Mendy, S. Kerjota, Cláudio Braga, J. McPake, P. Kabore
Coach: W. Vrancken
S. Bain, J. McMillan, L. Neilson, L. Henderson, S. Tanser, Finley Frank Barbrook, B. Spencer, E. Ross, D. Meļņiks, Owen Eames, J. Murrell
Coach: J. McGlynn
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 16:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.92 – 0.83 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 87/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian win | 63.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Falkirk win | 15.5% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 84.5% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 36.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 15:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Heart Of Midlothian or draw (1X) — The model gives Heart Of Midlothian or a draw a 90% chance, Heart Of Midlothian have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they are unbeaten in 5 of 5 home games.
Form (last 5)
Heart Of Midlothian
DWLWD
2.2 scored · 2.0 conceded per game
Falkirk
LWWWW
1.8 scored · 0.6 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Heart Of Midlothian wins 1 draws 1 Falkirk wins last 6 meetings
- Falkirk2 - 1Heart Of Midlothian Premiership
- Heart Of Midlothian3 - 0Falkirk Premiership
- Heart Of Midlothian1 - 0Falkirk Premiership
- Heart Of Midlothian1 - 1Falkirk FA Cup
- Falkirk0 - 2Heart Of Midlothian Premiership
- Heart Of Midlothian3 - 0Falkirk Premiership
Statistics: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 14:17. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
