Flamengo vs Gremio
Brazil Serie A
Flamengo
Gremio
November 4, 2026 at 23:30 · Estádio do Maracanã
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Flamengo vs Gremio prediction and betting tip for this Brazil Serie A match, kicking off November 4, 2026 at 23:30 at Estádio do Maracanã. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.03), 92% confidence.
Flamengo vs Gremio Preview
Flamengo host Gremio in the Brazil Serie A (matchday 34) on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 WAT at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro. P. Zanovelli is the referee.
Flamengo are 1st in the table with 73 points from 33 games (22-7-4), while Gremio sit 15th on 37 points. Flamengo have a 36-point advantage. At home Flamengo have won 12 of 16; Gremio have won 1 of 16 on the road.
Flamengo have four wins and one draw in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-W-W), averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Gremio have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-D-L-W-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Flamengo have won 3, Gremio 2, with 1 draw and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in May 2026, finished Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Flamengo average 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 14 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Gremio average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 4-1-4-1.
Flamengo will be without Danilo (jaw injury), S. Niguez (muscle injury), G. Plata (yellow cards) and A. Valencia (eye injury), and Lucas Paqueta (injury) is doubtful. Gremio will be without Carlos Vinicius (yellow cards), Danilo Barbosa (injury), Diego Caito (muscle injury), J. Nardoni (inactive), C. Pavon (muscle injury) and Weverton (yellow cards), and J. Cabral (muscle injury) is doubtful.
Players to watch: Pedro leads Flamengo's scoring with 18 goals and 6 assists; Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio's scoring with 11 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Flamengo the favourites: Flamengo 1.17, draw 7.50, Gremio 15.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.36 and under at 3.10. Both teams to score: yes 1.95, no 1.80.
Our prediction: Flamengo or draw (1X). The model gives Flamengo or a draw a 90% chance, Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 14 places above Gremio.
Team news
- Out Danilo Jaw injury
- Out S. Niguez Muscle Injury
- Out G. Plata Yellow Cards
- Out A. Valencia Eye injury
- Doubtful Lucas Paqueta Injury
- Out Carlos Vinicius Yellow Cards
- Out Danilo Barbosa Injury
- Out Diego Caito Muscle Injury
- Out J. Nardoni Inactive
- Out C. Pavon Muscle Injury
- Out Weverton Yellow Cards
- Doubtful J. Cabral Muscle Injury
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | +40 | 73 |
| 15 | Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -7 | 37 |
Season stats
| Flamengo | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 33 | 33 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 22 / 7 / 4 | 9 / 10 / 14 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 68 (2.1) | 37 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 28 (0.8) | 44 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.0 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 14 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 10 |
| Longest winning run | 5 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 5-3 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-1-4-1 |
Top scorers
- Pedro 18 goals · 6 assists
- Samuel Lino 11 goals · 9 assists
- Carlos Vinícius 11 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 3 Nov 2026, 13:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.23 – 0.57 · most likely score 2-0 · data quality 93/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo win | 75.5% | 81.0% | 1.17 | -11.7% |
| Draw | 16.6% | 12.6% | 7.50 | +24.8% |
| Gremio win | 7.9% | 6.3% | 15.00 | +18.6% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 92.1% | 93.7% | 1.03 | -5.1% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 24.5% | 19.0% | 5.00 | +22.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 85.4% | 1.11 | -14.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 69.5% | 1.36 | -28.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 30.5% | 3.10 | +46.1% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69.4% | 52.6% | 1.80 | +24.9% |
| Both teams to score | 38.5% | 48.0% | 1.95 | -24.9% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 3 Nov 2026, 18:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Flamengo or draw (1X) — The model gives Flamengo or a draw a 90% chance, Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 14 places above Gremio.
Form (last 5)
Flamengo
DWWWW
2.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Gremio
DDLWW
1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Flamengo wins 1 draws 2 Gremio wins last 6 meetings
- Gremio0 - 1Flamengo Serie A
- Flamengo1 - 1Gremio Serie A
- Gremio0 - 2Flamengo Serie A
- Gremio3 - 2Flamengo Serie A
- Flamengo2 - 1Gremio Serie A
- Gremio3 - 2Flamengo Serie A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 3 Nov 2026, 13:15. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
