FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
Switzerland Super League
FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
November 1, 2026 at 16:30 · St. Jakob-Park
Won
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 prediction and betting tip for this Switzerland Super League match, kicking off November 1, 2026 at 16:30 at St. Jakob-Park. Our tip: Over 2.5 Goals (odds 1.44), 65% confidence. Final score: 2-1 (2-1). The tip won.
FC Lugano 2-1 FC Basel 1893: Match Report
FC Lugano beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at St. Jakob-Park in the Switzerland Super League on Sunday. FC Lugano led 2-1 at half-time.
Daniel Dos Santos Correia opened the scoring for FC Lugano on 10 minutes, set up by Uran Bislimi. Yanis Cimignani made it 2-0 on 26 minutes, set up by Antonios Papadopoulos. Philip Otele pulled one back for FC Basel 1893 on 37 minutes, set up by Žan Celar.
FC Basel 1893 had 63% of the ball, while FC Lugano had 12 shots (7 on target) to FC Basel 1893's 21 (5). Expected goals finished FC Lugano 0.97, FC Basel 1893 0.95, a close game on chances.
There were 7 yellow cards.
Our tip, Over 2.5 Goals, won with 3 goals in the game.
Goals & cards
- 10' Daniel Dos Santos Correia FC Lugano · assist Uran Bislimi
- 16' Philip Otele FC Basel 1893 · Yellow Card
- 16' Uran Bislimi FC Lugano · Yellow Card
- 26' Yanis Cimignani FC Lugano · assist Antonios Papadopoulos
- 37' Philip Otele FC Basel 1893 · assist Žan Celar
- 44' Becir Omeragic FC Basel 1893 · Yellow Card
- 45' Xherdan Shaqiri FC Basel 1893 · Yellow Card
- 57' Mattia Zanotti FC Lugano · Yellow Card
- 76' Abemly Meto Silu Metinho FC Basel 1893 · Yellow Card
- 90+2' Lars Lukas Mai FC Lugano · Yellow Card
Match stats
Before the match
FC Lugano hosted FC Basel 1893 in the Switzerland Super League (matchday 12) on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 WAT at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.
FC Lugano are 1st in the table with 31 points from 11 games (10-1-0), while FC Basel 1893 sit 7th on 14 points. FC Lugano have a 17-point advantage. At home FC Lugano have won 5 of 6; FC Basel 1893 have won 3 of 5 on the road.
FC Lugano have four wins and one draw in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-W-W), averaging 3.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. FC Basel 1893 have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-L-L-D), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings FC Lugano have won 4, FC Basel 1893 1, with 1 draw and an average of 3.7 goals per game. The most recent, in September 2026, finished FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano.
FC Lugano average 3.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets, usually in a 3-5-2. FC Basel 1893 average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Players to watch: D. Moncada leads FC Lugano's scoring with 5 goals and 1 assist; Ž. Celar leads FC Basel 1893's scoring with 6 goals and 1 assist.
Line-ups: FC Lugano lined up in a 3-1-4-2, FC Basel 1893 in a 4-2-3-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made FC Lugano the favourites: FC Lugano 1.50, draw 4.75, FC Basel 1893 5.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and under at 2.70. Both teams to score: yes 1.53, no 2.38.
Our prediction was Over 2.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals and recent form points to 3.9 goals a game.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | +25 | 31 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
Season stats
| FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 11 | 11 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 10 / 1 / 0 | 4 / 2 / 5 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 34 (3.1) | 17 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 9 (0.8) | 20 (1.8) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 3.0 / 3.2 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 6 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 5-0 | 4-2 |
| Usual formation | 3-5-2 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- D. Moncada 5 goals · 1 assist
- Daniel Dos Santos 4 goals · 1 assist
- H. Delcroix 3 goals · 2 assists
- Ž. Celar 6 goals · 1 assist
- A. Sow 3 goals · 4 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
D. von Ballmoos, A. Papadopoulos, L. Mai, H. Delcroix, A. Grgić, M. Zanotti, U. Bislimi, Daniel Dos Santos, Y. Cimignani, D. Moncada, K. Behrens
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
J. Omlin, C. Michelin, A. Victory, F. Daniliuc, M. Cissé, B. Omeragić, Metinho, X. Shaqiri, L. Małachowski Thorell, P. Otele, Ž. Celar
Coach: S. Jokanović
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 19:16. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.53 – 0.79 · most likely score 2-0 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| FC Lugano win | 75.1% |
| Draw | 15.3% |
| FC Basel 1893 win | 9.5% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 90.5% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 24.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 50%, draw 50%, away 0%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 15:29, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 2.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals and recent form points to 3.9 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
FC Lugano
DWWWW
3.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
FC Basel 1893
LWLLD
1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 FC Lugano wins 1 draws 1 FC Basel 1893 wins last 6 meetings
- FC Basel 18931 - 3FC Lugano Super League
- FC Lugano4 - 0FC Basel 1893 Super League
- FC Basel 18931 - 1FC Lugano Super League
- FC Basel 18930 - 1FC Lugano Super League
- FC Lugano3 - 1FC Basel 1893 Super League
- FC Lugano2 - 5FC Basel 1893 Super League
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:15. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
