Cruz Azul vs Leon
Mexico Liga MX
Cruz Azul
Leon
November 2, 2026 at 02:10 · Estadio Banorte
Won
Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction and betting tip for this Mexico Liga MX match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 02:10 at Estadio Banorte. Our tip: Over 2.5 Goals (odds 1.62), 66% confidence. Final score: 2-1 (0-0). The tip won.
- Over 1.5 Goals Won
Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon: Match Report
Cruz Azul beat Leon 2-1 at Estadio Banorte in the Mexico Liga MX on Monday. It was goalless at half-time.
Andrés Montaño opened the scoring for Cruz Azul on 56 minutes from the penalty spot. José Paradela made it 2-0 on 72 minutes, set up by Nicolás Ibañez. Jose Alvarado pulled one back for Leon in stoppage time (90+10') from the penalty spot.
Leon had 52% of the ball, while Cruz Azul had 15 shots (5 on target) to Leon's 16 (4). Expected goals finished Cruz Azul 1.56, Leon 2.2, so Cruz Azul won against the run of play.
Referee Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle showed 9 yellow cards.
Our tip, Over 2.5 Goals, won with 3 goals in the game.
Goals & cards
- 33' Gabriel Fernández Cruz Azul · Yellow Card
- 34' Jhohan Romana Leon · Yellow Card
- 45+7' Christopher Mora Leon · Yellow Card
- 55' Edgar Guerra Leon · Yellow Card
- 55' Jose Rodriguez Leon · Yellow Card
- 56' Andrés Montaño Cruz Azul · Penalty
- 60' Jesús Orozco Cruz Azul · Yellow Card
- 72' José Paradela Cruz Azul · assist Nicolás Ibañez
- 79' Issac Alfredo Espinosa Salinas Leon · Yellow Card
- 85' Ángel Márquez Cruz Azul · Yellow Card
- 90+3' José Paradela Cruz Azul · Yellow Card
- 90+10' Jose Alvarado Leon · Penalty
Match stats
Before the match
Cruz Azul hosted Leon in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 15) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 02:10 WAT at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City. Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle was the referee.
Cruz Azul are 3rd in the table with 29 points from 15 games (9-2-4), while Leon sit 7th on 22 points. Cruz Azul have a 7-point advantage. At home Cruz Azul have won 5 of 8; Leon have won 2 of 8 on the road.
Cruz Azul have three wins and two draws in their last 5 league games (D-D-W-W-W), averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Leon have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-D-L-W-D), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Cruz Azul have won 5, Leon 1, with 0 draws and an average of 3.7 goals per game. The most recent, in January 2026, finished Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul.
Cruz Azul average 2.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Leon average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-1-4-1.
Players to watch: N. Ibáñez leads Cruz Azul's scoring with 5 goals and 2 assists; J. Alvarado leads Leon's scoring with 5 goals and 1 assist.
Line-ups: Cruz Azul lined up in a 5-4-1, Leon in a 4-3-3.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Cruz Azul the favourites: Cruz Azul 1.75, draw 3.80, Leon 4.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.62 and under at 2.25. Both teams to score: yes 1.67, no 2.10.
Our prediction was Over 2.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals and recent form points to 4.1 goals a game.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +10 | 29 |
| 7 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 |
Season stats
| Cruz Azul | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 14 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 8 / 2 / 4 | 6 / 4 / 4 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 32 (2.3) | 21 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 23 (1.6) | 18 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.4 / 2.1 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 3 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 5-0 | 2-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-1-4-1 |
Top scorers
- N. Ibáñez 5 goals · 2 assists
- G. Fernández 5 goals · 1 assist
- J. Alvarado 5 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
K. Mier, R. Gonzalez, A. García, G. Piovi, J. Orozco, O. Campos, A. Palavecino, É. Lira, A. Montaño, C. Rodríguez, G. Fernández
Coach: Joel Huiqui
Ó. García, I. Moreno, J. Romaña, Juan José Guevara Possu, C. Mora, R. Echeverría, J. Rodríguez, D. Arcila, E. Guerra, J. Alvarado, I. Díaz
Coach: J. Gandolfi
Data: API-Football · updated 2 Nov 2026, 06:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.28 – 1.07 · most likely score 2-1 · data quality 81/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul win | 64.7% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Leon win | 16.4% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 83.6% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 35.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 2 Nov 2026, 01:29, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 2.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals and recent form points to 4.1 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Cruz Azul
DDWWW
3.2 scored · 1.6 conceded per game
Leon
WDLWD
1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
5 Cruz Azul wins 0 draws 1 Leon wins last 6 meetings
- Leon2 - 1Cruz Azul Liga MX
- Cruz Azul4 - 1Leon Liga MX
- Cruz Azul2 - 1Leon Liga MX
- Leon2 - 3Cruz Azul Liga MX
- Cruz Azul2 - 1Leon Liga MX
- Leon1 - 2Cruz Azul Liga MX
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 23:15. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
