Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Bulgaria First League
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
November 7, 2026 at 12:30 · Hristo Botev Stadium
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Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction and betting tip for this Bulgaria First League match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 12:30 at Hristo Botev Stadium. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.14), 94% confidence.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Preview
Botev Vratsa host Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria First League (matchday 13) on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 WAT at Hristo Botev Stadium in Vratsa.
Botev Vratsa are 11th in the table with 10 points from 13 games (2-4-7), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 13th on 9 points. Only 1 point separates them. At home Botev Vratsa have won 1 of 5; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have won 0 of 6 on the road.
Botev Vratsa have three draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (D-D-L-D-L), averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have three draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-D-D-L), averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Botev Vratsa have won 2, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent, in March 2026, finished Botev Vratsa 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Botev Vratsa average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 6 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv average 0.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets and 8 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: R. Leijten leads Lokomotiv Plovdiv's scoring with 1 goal.
Bookmakers make Botev Vratsa the favourites: Botev Vratsa 2.10, draw 3.10, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3.70 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.70 and under at 1.44. Both teams to score: yes 2.20, no 1.62.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.2 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.2 goals and recent form points to 1.7 goals a game.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Season stats
| Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 4 / 7 | 2 / 3 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 10 (0.8) | 6 (0.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 22 (1.7) | 17 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.4 / 1.0 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- R. Leijten 1 goal · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:16. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.84 – 0.63 · most likely score 0-0 · data quality 82/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa win | 37.8% |
| Draw | 36.8% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv win | 25.5% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 74.5% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 62.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 43.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 18.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 81.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 93.7% |
| Both teams to score | 26.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 35%, draw 35%, away 30%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 14:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.2 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.2 goals and recent form points to 1.7 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Botev Vratsa
DDLDL
0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
LDDDL
0.4 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Botev Vratsa wins 1 draws 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins last 6 meetings
- Botev Vratsa1 - 2Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 - 0Botev Vratsa First League
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1 - 3Botev Vratsa First League
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1 - 0Botev Vratsa First League
- Botev Vratsa0 - 0Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League
- Botev Vratsa2 - 0Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:16. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
