Benfica vs Alverca
Portugal Primeira Liga
Benfica
Alverca
November 2, 2026 at 21:15 · Estádio da Luz
Upcoming
Benfica vs Alverca prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Primeira Liga match, kicking off November 2, 2026 at 21:15 at Estádio da Luz. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.04), 87% confidence.
- Over 2.5 Goals Upcoming
- Over 1.5 Goals Upcoming
Benfica vs Alverca Preview
Benfica host Alverca in the Portugal Primeira Liga (matchday 10) on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 21:15 WAT at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Bruno Pires Costa is the referee.
Benfica are 2nd in the table with 22 points from 9 games (7-1-1), while Alverca sit 9th on 11 points. Benfica have a 11-point advantage. At home Benfica have won 3 of 4; Alverca have won 2 of 4 on the road.
Benfica have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-W-W), averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Alverca have three wins and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-W-L), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 2 meetings Benfica have won 2, Alverca 0, with 0 draws and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in February 2026, finished Benfica 2-1 Alverca.
Benfica average 2.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Alverca average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-3.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: V. Pavlidis leads Benfica's scoring with 9 goals and 3 assists; Vivaldo Semedo leads Alverca's scoring with 3 goals.
Bookmakers make Benfica the favourites: Benfica 1.17, draw 8.00, Alverca 13.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40 and under at 2.88. Both teams to score: yes 2.05, no 1.70.
Our prediction: Benfica or draw (1X). The model gives Benfica or a draw a 90% chance, Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 7 places above Alverca.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 9 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
Season stats
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 7 / 1 / 1 | 3 / 2 / 4 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 26 (2.9) | 13 (1.4) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 8 (0.9) | 13 (1.4) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.3 / 3.4 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 5 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Top scorers
- V. Pavlidis 9 goals · 3 assists
- G. Prestianni 6 goals · 4 assists
- Vivaldo Semedo 3 goals · 0 assists
- D. Camara 3 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.54 – 1.02 · most likely score 2-1 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 70.3% | 80.9% | 1.17 | -17.7% |
| Draw | 16.6% | 11.8% | 8.00 | +32.7% |
| Alverca win | 13.1% | 7.3% | 13.00 | +70.0% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 86.9% | 92.7% | 1.04 | -9.6% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 29.7% | 19.1% | 5.00 | +48.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | 85.4% | 1.11 | -3.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 67.3% | 1.40 | -3.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.7% | 2.88 | -10.8% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52.4% | 51.5% | 1.80 | -5.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 45.3% | 2.05 | +20.7% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 10:29, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Benfica or draw (1X) — The model gives Benfica or a draw a 90% chance, Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 7 places above Alverca.
Form (last 5)
Benfica
WWLWW
2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Alverca
LWWWL
1.8 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Benfica wins 0 draws 0 Alverca wins last 2 meetings
- Benfica2 - 1Alverca Primeira Liga
- Alverca1 - 2Benfica Primeira Liga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 00:42. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
