Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Australia A-League
Melbourne Victory
Central Coast Mariners
November 1, 2026 at 05:00 · AAMI Park
Won
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners prediction and betting tip for this Australia A-League match, kicking off November 1, 2026 at 05:00 at AAMI Park. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.10), 90% confidence. Final score: 1-1 (0-0). The tip won.
Melbourne Victory 1-1 Central Coast Mariners: Match Report
Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners shared the points in a 1-1 draw at AAMI Park in the Australia A-League on Sunday. It was goalless at half-time.
O. Lavale opened the scoring for Central Coast Mariners on 63 minutes, set up by A. Auglah. J. Valadon levelled for Melbourne Victory on 69 minutes, set up by C. Nduka.
H. Shillington (Melbourne Victory, 13') was sent off.
Our tip, Melbourne Victory or draw (1X), won as the game ended level.
Goals & cards
- 13' H. Shillington Melbourne Victory · Red Card
- 63' O. Lavale Central Coast Mariners · assist A. Auglah
- 69' J. Valadon Melbourne Victory · assist C. Nduka
- 70' C. Donnell Central Coast Mariners · Yellow Card
- 72' O. Lavale Central Coast Mariners · Yellow Card
- 72' P. Ziereis Melbourne Victory · Yellow Card
Before the match
Melbourne Victory hosted Central Coast Mariners in the Australia A-League (matchday 3) on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 05:00 WAT at AAMI Park in Melbourne. Jonathan Barreiro was the referee.
Melbourne Victory are 9th in the table with 1 points from 2 games (0-1-1), while Central Coast Mariners sit 10th on 1 points. The two sides are level on points. At home Melbourne Victory have won 0 of 1; Central Coast Mariners have won 0 of 1 on the road.
Melbourne Victory have one draw and one defeat in their last 2 league games (L-D), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Central Coast Mariners have one draw and one defeat in their last 2 league games (D-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Melbourne Victory have won 2, Central Coast Mariners 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.3 goals per game. The most recent, in March 2026, finished Melbourne Victory 4-1 Central Coast Mariners.
Melbourne Victory average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets, usually in a 4-4-1-1. Central Coast Mariners average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-4-2.
Melbourne Victory will be without L. D'Arrigo (inactive). Central Coast Mariners will be without T. Hisamatsu (inactive) and T. Sainsbury (achilles tendon injury).
Players to watch: C. Nduka leads Melbourne Victory's scoring with 1 goal and 1 assist.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Melbourne Victory the favourites: Melbourne Victory 1.36, draw 4.75, Central Coast Mariners 8.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.50 and under at 2.50. Both teams to score: yes 1.75, no 2.00.
Our prediction was Melbourne Victory or draw (1X). The model gives Melbourne Victory or a draw a 90% chance, bookmakers make Melbourne Victory favourites at 1.36 and Central Coast Mariners are missing 2 players.
Team news
- Out L. D'Arrigo Inactive
- Out T. Hisamatsu Inactive
- Out T. Sainsbury Achilles Tendon Injury
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Season stats
| Melbourne Victory | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 2 (1.0) | 2 (1.0) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 3 (1.5) | 4 (2.0) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 0 | 0 |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Usual formation | 4-4-1-1 | 4-4-2 |
Top scorers
- C. Nduka 1 goal · 1 assist
- K. Jelacic 1 goal · 0 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Data: API-Football · updated 1 Nov 2026, 07:15. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.98 – 1.00 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 80/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory win | 60.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Central Coast Mariners win | 18.6% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 81.4% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 40.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 1 Nov 2026, 04:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Melbourne Victory or draw (1X) — The model gives Melbourne Victory or a draw a 90% chance, bookmakers make Melbourne Victory favourites at 1.36 and Central Coast Mariners are missing 2 players.
Form (last 5)
Melbourne Victory
LD
1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded per game
Central Coast Mariners
DL
1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Melbourne Victory wins 1 draws 3 Central Coast Mariners wins last 6 meetings
- Melbourne Victory4 - 1Central Coast Mariners A-League
- Central Coast Mariners1 - 0Melbourne Victory A-League
- Melbourne Victory3 - 0Central Coast Mariners A-League
- Central Coast Mariners0 - 0Melbourne Victory A-League
- Central Coast Mariners3 - 1Melbourne Victory A-League
- Melbourne Victory0 - 1Central Coast Mariners A-League
Statistics: API-Football · updated 31 Oct 2026, 17:16. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
