For England, the thought is frightening but very real. This could be Harry Kane’s final World Cup.
“It could always be my last because you never know what happens in football,” the Three Lions captain said earlier this month. “But you know what I’m like, I want to play for a long, long time.”
Turning 33 this summer, this is unlikely to be Kane’s last tournament with England, having already expressed his ambition to play at the European Championships on home soil in 2028. But given his age, this tournament feels particularly big on an individual basis. There are no guarantees he will appear at the 2030 World Cup, when he will be almost 37.
This is not just potentially his last dance at the World Cup. It is probably the best chance he will get for the Ballon d’Or.
The numbers that matter
Kane is not the outstanding contender to win football’s top individual prize, but he is certainly up there. And the World Cup is likely to be a key factor in determining its destination.
England have not had a Ballon d’Or winner since Michael Owen in 2001. Kane has a real chance to end that run.
He comes into this tournament as not just arguably the best player in the world but the best version we’ve ever seen of him. His 67 goals for Bayern Munich and England this season, including 10 in his last 11 international games, is not just the highest season’s goal tally of his career, but the most any player has managed in the season going into a World Cup.
It means Kane is the most in form player going into any World Cup ever, in terms of goals.
“[The World Cup] is coming off the best season I’ve ever had,” he said on the eve of the tournament.
“I’ve been scoring a lot more goals that I have in any previous season. But physically and mentally, the way the season ended for me was grea, winning the league and the cup final, scoring three goals there. That gave me even more momentum coming into the camp with the boys.”
What history tells us
Kane has six more goals than Cristiano Ronaldo managed in 2013/14 before the Brazil World Cup. Ronaldo did not back that season up with international glory, scoring only one goal in three games as Portugal failed to get out of their group.
But it was still enough for Ronaldo to win the Ballon d’Or, having won the Champions League and Copa del Rey that season. He also started the following season on fire.
It would be a little premature to say it is now or never for Kane to win the award, he could win it next year, for example. But he has set himself up so perfectly to win this year’s honour, and would do well to replicate a season like this.
The fitness question
Translating this form from season to summer, especially at the end of a long season, is still a huge challenge. Take Euro 2024 as an example. Kane had a superb debut campaign at Bayern, scoring 44 goals across all competitions. But come the latter stages of the Euros, the England captain was exhausted so much so that Gareth Southgate took him off in the second half in every game past the quarter final.
Thomas Tuchel has played down concerns that Kane will be arriving tired.
Speaking earlier this month, Tuchel said: “Ideally we can take some minutes off him, but if the matches are close, do we really do this? Do we take our main goalscorer, our captain off? Maybe not.
“The most important thing is the shape Harry is in. He’s in top shape, he is ready to go. He was the leading player who set the intensity in training today, on a defensive training day. He’s used to high pressing, high intensity in the opponent’s half with Bayern Munich.
“We don’t have to be worried about him at all, even if it’s hot and humid. We have some good [other] options but Harry is the main guy up front.”
Kane’s belief
Kane added ahead of the Croatia game: “From a physical point of view, I feel in great shape in the training sessions and matches we played.
“Throughout your career, you need a lot of things to go your way and fall into place at the right time. It has for this tournament. It’s one of the best opportunities we all have as a team to win it.”
And Kane knows that despite winning every domestic trophy possible with Bayern this season, a good World Cup could be required to put him in the Ballon d’Or picture.
“I’d probably say I’ll be up there for sure,” he replied about his chances if he achieves glory with England this summer.
“With the season I’ve had, I think with winning the three trophies, the numbers I’ve reached, I think I’ll be in that conversation. If I win the World Cup on top of that, you would imagine it would be one of the England players.
“When you look at some of the past winners of the Ballon d’Or, for sure it comes down to the big games, the big tournaments, and you add that on top of what I’ve achieved this year, I think I’ll be up there.”
The bottom line
Kane has never finished higher than 10th in the Ballon d’Or voting dating back to 2017. But now is not the time for top 10s. This is about being No. 1.
Sixty seven goals. Three trophies. The most in form player ever to grace a World Cup.
This is his best shot. It might be his last shot. And if England go all the way, Kane could finally claim the individual prize that has eluded him.
The World Cup begins. The Ballon d’Or race is on. And Harry Kane is ready.
