Real Madrid take a slender 1-0 lead to the Bernabeu tonight but the punters are warning this tie is FAR from over.
Vinicius Jr’s stunner in Lisbon last week separated the sides, but that goal was overshadowed by allegations of racial abuse aimed at the Brazilian from Benfica winger Gianluca Prestianni. The fallout has rumbled on all week, adding extra spice to an already explosive last 16 clash.
Madrid go in as favourites, obviously. It’s the Bernabeu. It’s the Champions League. It’s THEM.
But here’s the thing, Álvaro Arbeloa’s men have been far from convincing in Europe this season. They got slapped 4-2 by these very opponents in the league phase back in January. And that 2-1 slip at Osasuna on the weekend? Proof they’re vulnerable.
THE PREDICTION
The Sporting News boffins reckon this ends all square on the night, with Madrid scraping through on aggregate.
“Real Madrid will likely look to grind down this match and prevent Benfica chances,” they say. “Yet they are often prone to individual errors which allow their opponent quality chances on net.”
Translation: There WILL be nervy moments. Possibly goals. Definitely drama.
WHY BENFICA BELIEVE
The Eagles have history here. Literally.
Before this season, these two hadn’t met since 1965 when Benfica won 6-3 on aggregate. And the first ever meeting? The 1962 European Cup final, when Eusebio’s Benfica came from 2-0 down to win 5-3. Ferenc Puskas bagged a hat trick in the first 39 minutes AND LOST.
That’s the kind of history that gives visiting teams belief.
Throw in that 4-2 league phase win in Lisbon just last month, and Benfica know they can hurt this Madrid side. They’ve scored FOUR in two games against Los Blancos this season. That’s not luck.
THE BERNABEU FACTOR
But this is different. This is the Bernabeu under the lights. This is Vinicius, Mbappe, Bellingham. This is Mourinho watching from the stands while his assistant Joao Tralhao takes charge of the visitors.
Madrid’s form guide reads: W, W, W, W, L. That Osasuna defeat was a blip , but blips against this Benfica side can become disasters.
TEAM NEWS
Madrid are expected to name a strong XI despite that weekend defeat. Álvaro Arbeloa knows the danger of rotating with the tie in the balance. Vinicius starts. Mbappe leads the line. Bellingham pulls the strings.
Benfica will sit tight early, absorb pressure, and look to hit on the break, just like they did in Lisbon when they put four past Madrid.
THE BETTING ANGLE
The bookies have Madrid odds on, obviously. But the value might be elsewhere.
Both Teams to Score? Given Benfica have netted in both meetings this season and Madrid’s defence has looked dodgy, that’s tempting.
Draw on the night? That’s the betandsured News punt, and it makes sense. Madrid don’t need to win, they just need to avoid defeat. That could lead to a cagey affair that Benfica might nick a result in without going through.
THE VERDICT
Madrid to go through. But it won’t be pretty. It won’t be comfortable. And there’ll be moments when the Bernabeu holds its collective breath.
Benfica have goals in them. Madrid have mistakes in them. If the visitors score first, all bets are off.
PREDICTION: Real Madrid 1-1 Benfica (Madrid win 2-1 on aggregate)
BEST BET: Both Teams to Score, Benfica have bagged in both meetings this term and Madrid can’t keep clean sheets for fun.
VALUE PLAY: Draw at the Bernabeu, Madrid happy to see out what they’ve got.
ONE TO WATCH: Vinicius Jr, all eyes on the Brazilian after last week’s controversy. Expect fireworks.
